Triple Threat — 2026-08-26

Golden State Valkyries at Connecticut Sun

Golden State Valkyries 26-11

Connecticut Sun 10-27

Scheduled · Mohegan Sun Arena

ML-1021 / +727

Spread14 (-110 / -106)

Total151.5 (O -110 / U -110)

pinnacle

Golden State Valkyries

Off Rating#7109.9 ▼ Def Rating#1101.1 ▼ Net Rating#28.8 ▲ Pace#1591.1

Connecticut Sun

Off Rating#1598.8 ▲ Def Rating#11108.2 ▼ Net Rating#15-9.5 ▲ Pace#1196.0

MODEL PROJECTION matchup-v7-final-role-distribution

PLAYER DATA LOADED

Golden State Valkyries87.7

–

Connecticut Sun74.3

Scoring range (P20 / median / P80) 77 / 87.7 / 98.4 68.1 / 74.3 / 80.5 Total range151.7 / 162 / 172.3

Golden State Valkyries90.7%Connecticut Sun9.3%

Possessions78 Model spreadConnecticut Sun +13.4 Model total162 Game-script reliability72%

MARKET COMPARISON

MarketDifference Spread+14.0-0.6 Total151.5+10.5 Moneyline12.1%-2.8%

MODEL DECISION

Predicted winnerGolden State Valkyries 90.7%

SpreadWait · Unresolved core availability

TotalWait · Unresolved core availability

Best playPass

Final availability required for Unresolved core availability. Refreshing after a definitive status will remove this warning and recalculate the game.

LINE-SPECIFIC PROBABILITIES selection-prob-v2

MONEYLINEReliability 72/100

Connecticut SunLine ML · +727

Model6.3%

Edge (no-vig)-5.5 pp

Fair+1497

Projection -14.56 · Break-even 12.1% · No-vig 11.7%

Golden State ValkyriesLine ML · -1021

Model93.7%

Edge (no-vig)+5.5 pp

Fair-1497

Projection 14.56 · Break-even 91.1% · No-vig 88.3%

SPREADReliability 72/100

Connecticut SunLine 14 · -106

Model47.6%

Edge (no-vig)-1.9 pp

Fair+110

Projection -14.56 · Break-even 51.5% · No-vig 49.5%

Golden State ValkyriesLine -14 · -110

Model52.3%

Edge (no-vig)+1.9 pp

Fair-110

Projection 14.56 · Break-even 52.4% · No-vig 50.4%

TOTALReliability 72/100

OverLine 151.5 · -110

Model80.1%

Edge (no-vig)+30.1 pp

Fair-402

Projection 164.7 · Break-even 52.4% · No-vig 50.0%

UnderLine 151.5 · -110

Model19.9%

Edge (no-vig)-30.1 pp

Fair+402

Projection 164.7 · Break-even 52.4% · No-vig 50.0%

Toronto Tempo at Seattle Storm

Toronto Tempo 11-26

Seattle Storm 7-31

Scheduled · Climate Pledge Arena

ML+235 / -284

Spread-7 (-107 / -109)

Total175 (O -107 / U -113)

pinnacle

Toronto Tempo

Off Rating#8107.6 ▲ Def Rating#15115.6 ▲ Net Rating#14-8.0 Pace#697.6 ▲

Seattle Storm

Off Rating#13102.1 ▼ Def Rating#10108.1 ▼ Net Rating#13-6.1 Pace#597.6 ▲

MODEL PROJECTION matchup-v7-final-role-distribution

PLAYER DATA LOADED

Toronto Tempo79.5

–

Seattle Storm99.6

Scoring range (P20 / median / P80) 74.5 / 79.5 / 84.5 93.2 / 99.6 / 106 Total range172.2 / 179.1 / 186

Toronto Tempo0.5%Seattle Storm99.5%

Possessions81.3 Model spreadSeattle Storm -20.1 Model total179.1 Game-script reliability76%

MARKET COMPARISON

MarketDifference Spread-7.0-13.1 Total175+4.1 Moneyline74.0%+25.6%

MODEL DECISION

Predicted winnerSeattle Storm 99.5%

SpreadSeattle Storm -7 · Bet

TotalOver 175 · Bet

Best playSpread: Seattle Storm -7

Early thresholds · a pass is intentional.

LINE-SPECIFIC PROBABILITIES selection-prob-v2

MONEYLINEReliability 76/100

Seattle StormLine ML · -284

Model97.7%

Edge (no-vig)+26.4 pp

Fair-4242

Projection 18.94 · Break-even 74.0% · No-vig 71.2%

Toronto TempoLine ML · +235

Model2.3%

Edge (no-vig)-26.4 pp

Fair+4242

Projection -18.94 · Break-even 29.8% · No-vig 28.8%

SPREADReliability 76/100

Seattle StormLine -7 · -109

Model89.6%

Edge (no-vig)+39.4 pp

Fair-859

Projection 18.94 · Break-even 52.1% · No-vig 50.2%

Toronto TempoLine 7 · -107

Model10.4%

Edge (no-vig)-39.4 pp

Fair+859

Projection -18.94 · Break-even 51.7% · No-vig 49.8%

TOTALReliability 76/100

OverLine 175 · -107

Model66.8%

Edge (no-vig)+17.5 pp

Fair-201

Projection 181.8 · Break-even 51.7% · No-vig 49.4%

UnderLine 175 · -113

Model33.2%

Edge (no-vig)-17.5 pp

Fair+201

Projection 181.8 · Break-even 53.0% · No-vig 50.6%

Player PTS & REB Projections

Pregame outputs from projected rotations and stored ESPN box-score history.

player-pr-v1

Golden State Valkyries at Connecticut Sun

Golden State Valkyries15 roster players

PlayerMinPTSREB

Veronica BurtonACTIVE27.913.73.7

Kayla ThorntonACTIVE23.17.33.0

Gabby WilliamsACTIVE23.013.43.1

Tiffany HayesACTIVE21.513.94.5

Cecilia ZandalasiniACTIVE21.38.83.5

Kiah StokesACTIVE19.13.45.4

Janelle SalaunACTIVE18.712.32.9

Kaila CharlesACTIVE16.25.32.7

Kaitlyn ChenACTIVE12.93.40.8

Laeticia AmihereACTIVE10.83.42.6

Juste JocyteACTIVE1.92.00.0

Miela SowahACTIVE1.80.80.2

Nadia FingallACTIVE1.80.00.0

Ashten PrechtelOUT0.00.00.0

Iliana RupertOUT0.00.00.0

Add optional player line

Connecticut Sun14 roster players

PlayerMinPTSREB

Charlisse Leger-WalkerACTIVE27.26.83.6

Kennedy BurkeACTIVE26.212.23.4

Saniya RiversACTIVE24.37.13.5

Aaliyah EdwardsACTIVE22.517.17.1

Diamond MillerACTIVE20.39.22.8

Hailey Van LithACTIVE12.41.51.1

Raegan BeersACTIVE12.23.73.6

Nell AnglomaACTIVE10.92.81.6

Ashlon JacksonACTIVE10.22.21.0

Brittney GrinerQUESTIONABLE10.12.73.4

Olivia Nelson-OdodaQUESTIONABLE10.14.82.7

Gianna KneepkensACTIVE8.32.40.9

Rayah MarshallACTIVE5.31.91.5

Leila LacanOUT0.00.00.0

Add optional player line

Toronto Tempo at Seattle Storm

Toronto Tempo14 roster players

PlayerMinPTSREB

Kiki RiceACTIVE37.518.73.5

Laura JuskaiteACTIVE36.215.16.6

Isabelle HarrisonACTIVE32.213.88.9

Kia NurseACTIVE26.413.51.6

Temi FagbenleACTIVE23.88.73.4

Ornella BankoleACTIVE20.85.52.4

Teonni KeyACTIVE15.64.11.9

Zaay GreenACTIVE7.50.01.5

Aneesah MorrowOUT0.00.00.0

Brittney SykesOUT0.00.00.0

Julie AllemandOUT0.00.00.0

Maria CondeOUT0.00.00.0

Marina MabreyOUT0.00.00.0

Nyara SaballyOUT0.00.00.0

Add optional player line

Seattle Storm13 roster players

PlayerMinPTSREB

Jade MelbourneACTIVE27.514.42.5

Flau'jae JohnsonACTIVE26.415.64.2

Dominique MalongaACTIVE25.420.99.0

Ezi MagbegorACTIVE24.49.54.8

Awa FamACTIVE20.08.44.6

Jordan HorstonACTIVE18.19.04.3

Zia CookeACTIVE16.19.41.3

Katie Lou SamuelsonACTIVE12.43.31.4

Stefanie DolsonACTIVE9.81.81.3

Taylor ThierryACTIVE9.32.82.1

Taina MairACTIVE7.94.40.3

Mackenzie HolmesACTIVE2.70.00.5

Natisha HiedemanOUT0.00.00.0

Add optional player line

Matchup Stats

Season supporting evidence from stored ESPN completed box scores.

Golden State Valkyries at Connecticut Sun

Golden State ValkyriesConnecticut Sun

83.9

Points

75.0

75.6

Points allowed

84.6

42.7%

Field goal %

40.0%

—

Opponent FG %

—

33.6

Rebounds

32.4

20.6

Assists

17.9

10.1

Turnovers

13.4

8.4

Steals

7.8

2.5

Blocks

4.5

Golden State Valkyries leaders

PTSJanelle Salaun14.3

REBKiah Stokes6.7

ASTVeronica Burton5.4

STLVeronica Burton1.9

BLKKiah Stokes1.4

3PMJanelle Salaun2.3

Connecticut Sun leaders

PTSAaliyah Edwards18.3

REBBrittney Griner7.5

ASTLeila Lacan4.7

STLKennedy Burke2.2

BLKBrittney Griner2.0

3PMDiamond Miller1.8

Toronto Tempo at Seattle Storm

Toronto TempoSeattle Storm

84.8

Points

84.4

94.1

Points allowed

90.4

43.5%

Field goal %

40.7%

—

Opponent FG %

—

32.1

Rebounds

34.3

20.2

Assists

19.4

13.3

Turnovers

12.6

5.9

Steals

7.1

3.3

Blocks

5.1

Toronto Tempo leaders

PTSMarina Mabrey20.4

REBNyara Sabally7.6

ASTJulie Allemand5.7

STLNyara Sabally1.4

BLKIsabelle Harrison1.0

3PMMarina Mabrey3.6

Seattle Storm leaders

PTSDominique Malonga19.3

REBDominique Malonga9.3

ASTNatisha Hiedeman6.0

STLFlau'jae Johnson2.0

BLKDominique Malonga2.0

3PMJade Melbourne2.0

2026 League-wide Stored Stat Leaders

These rankings cover the stored league sample and do not change when viewing a different matchup.

Points

1. Kelsey Mitchell28.4

2. A'ja Wilson24.8

3. Caitlin Clark23.4

4. Jackie Young22.5

5. Olivia Miles22.1

Rebounds

1. Angel Reese13.2

2. Kamilla Cardoso10.3

3. Jonquel Jones9.8

4. Kiki Iriafen9.6

5. Shakira Austin9.6

Assists

1. Caitlin Clark9.1

2. Alyssa Thomas8.3

3. Olivia Miles7.5

4. Carla Leite7.0

5. Jordin Canada6.5

Steals

1. Azzi Fudd2.5

2. Kennedy Burke2.2

3. Rhyne Howard2.1

4. Flau'jae Johnson2.0

5. Angel Reese1.9

Blocks

1. Awak Kuier2.4

2. A'ja Wilson2.1

3. Brittney Griner2.0

4. Dominique Malonga2.0

5. Cameron Brink1.8

3-pointers made

1. Kayla McBride3.9

2. Rhyne Howard3.9

3. Marina Mabrey3.6

4. Kelsey Mitchell3.5

5. Caitlin Clark3.4