Triple Threat WNBA Mobile Snapshot

2026-08-23 · Captured 2026-08-23 20:59 UTC
Frozen pregame snapshot. 4 games loaded Lines and projections do not update on this page.
Seattle Storm 7-30
Dallas Wings 21-16
Scheduled · College Park Center
ML+327 / -432
Spread-9.5 (-109 / -111)
Total172 (O -106 / U -119)
pinnacle
Seattle Storm
Off Rating#13102.1 ▼ Def Rating#10108.1 ▼ Net Rating#13-6.1 Pace#597.6 ▲
Dallas Wings
Off Rating#6110.1 ▼ Def Rating#7107.7 ▼ Net Rating#72.4 ▼ Pace#1395.7 ▼
MODEL PROJECTION matchup-v6-volatility-rotation
PLAYER DATA LOADED
Seattle Storm85.4
–
Dallas Wings87.1
Seattle Storm43.0%Dallas Wings57.0%
Possessions80.5 Model spreadDallas Wings -1.7 Model total172.5 Game-script reliability75.2%
MARKET COMPARISON
MarketDifference Spread-9.5+7.8 Total172+0.5 Moneyline81.2%-24.2%
MODEL DECISION
Predicted winnerDallas Wings 57.0%
SpreadSeattle Storm · Bet
TotalPass
Best playSpread: Seattle Storm
Early thresholds · a pass is intentional.
LINE-SPECIFIC PROBABILITIES selection-prob-v2
MONEYLINEReliability 75.2/100
Dallas WingsLine ML · -432
Model53.0%
Edge (no-vig)-24.6 pp
Fair-113
Projection 0.61 · Break-even 81.2% · No-vig 77.6%
Seattle StormLine ML · +327
Model47.0%
Edge (no-vig)+24.6 pp
Fair+113
Projection -0.61 · Break-even 23.4% · No-vig 22.4%
SPREADReliability 75.2/100
Dallas WingsLine -9.5 · -111
Model13.7%
Edge (no-vig)-36.5 pp
Fair+631
Projection 0.61 · Break-even 52.6% · No-vig 50.2%
Seattle StormLine 9.5 · -109
Model86.3%
Edge (no-vig)+36.5 pp
Fair-631
Projection -0.61 · Break-even 52.1% · No-vig 49.8%
TOTALReliability 75.2/100
OverLine 172 · -106
Model52.9%
Edge (no-vig)+4.3 pp
Fair-112
Projection 173.09 · Break-even 51.5% · No-vig 48.6%
UnderLine 172 · -119
Model47.1%
Edge (no-vig)-4.3 pp
Fair+112
Projection 173.09 · Break-even 54.3% · No-vig 51.4%
PLAYER POINTSReliability 75.2/100
Ezi Magbegor OverLine 8.5 · -104
Model46.4%
Edge (no-vig)-1.2 pp
Fair+115
Projection 8.8 · Break-even 51.0% · No-vig 47.6%
Ezi Magbegor UnderLine 8.5 · -128
Model53.6%
Edge (no-vig)+1.2 pp
Fair-115
Projection 8.8 · Break-even 56.1% · No-vig 52.4%
Awak Kuier OverLine 8.5 · -108
Model39.3%
Edge (no-vig)-9.2 pp
Fair+155
Projection 7.4 · Break-even 51.9% · No-vig 48.5%
Awak Kuier UnderLine 8.5 · -123
Model60.7%
Edge (no-vig)+9.2 pp
Fair-155
Projection 7.4 · Break-even 55.2% · No-vig 51.5%
Alanna Smith OverLine 9.5 · -122
Model57.3%
Edge (no-vig)+5.9 pp
Fair-134
Projection 10.4 · Break-even 54.9% · No-vig 51.4%
Alanna Smith UnderLine 9.5 · -108
Model42.7%
Edge (no-vig)-5.9 pp
Fair+134
Projection 10.4 · Break-even 51.9% · No-vig 48.6%
Jade Melbourne OverLine 9.5 · -131
Model65.8%
Edge (no-vig)+12.9 pp
Fair-192
Projection 12.3 · Break-even 56.7% · No-vig 52.9%
Jade Melbourne UnderLine 9.5 · -102
Model34.3%
Edge (no-vig)-12.9 pp
Fair+192
Projection 12.3 · Break-even 50.5% · No-vig 47.1%
Awa Fam OverLine 11.5 · -109
Model41.6%
Edge (no-vig)-7.1 pp
Fair+140
Projection 8.7 · Break-even 52.1% · No-vig 48.7%
Awa Fam UnderLine 11.5 · -122
Model58.4%
Edge (no-vig)+7.1 pp
Fair-140
Projection 8.7 · Break-even 54.9% · No-vig 51.3%
Flau'jae JohnsonInsufficient data
Jessica Shepard OverLine 14.5 · -112
Model45.2%
Edge (no-vig)-4.1 pp
Fair+121
Projection 12.4 · Break-even 52.8% · No-vig 49.3%
Jessica Shepard UnderLine 14.5 · -119
Model54.8%
Edge (no-vig)+4.1 pp
Fair-121
Projection 12.4 · Break-even 54.3% · No-vig 50.7%
Arike Ogunbowale OverLine 17.5 · -110
Model51.4%
Edge (no-vig)+2.4 pp
Fair-106
Projection 18 · Break-even 52.4% · No-vig 49.0%
Arike Ogunbowale UnderLine 17.5 · -120
Model48.6%
Edge (no-vig)-2.4 pp
Fair+106
Projection 18 · Break-even 54.5% · No-vig 51.0%
Dominique Malonga OverLine 19.5 · -106
Model51.6%
Edge (no-vig)+3.5 pp
Fair-107
Projection 20 · Break-even 51.5% · No-vig 48.1%
Dominique Malonga UnderLine 19.5 · -125
Model48.4%
Edge (no-vig)-3.5 pp
Fair+107
Projection 20 · Break-even 55.6% · No-vig 51.9%
Paige Bueckers OverLine 21.5 · -111
Model45.6%
Edge (no-vig)-3.6 pp
Fair+119
Projection 20.2 · Break-even 52.6% · No-vig 49.2%
Paige Bueckers UnderLine 21.5 · -119
Model54.4%
Edge (no-vig)+3.6 pp
Fair-119
Projection 20.2 · Break-even 54.3% · No-vig 50.8%
PLAYER REBOUNDSReliability 75.2/100
Arike Ogunbowale OverLine 3.5 · +115
Model47.5%
Edge (no-vig)+4.2 pp
Fair+111
Projection 3.3 · Break-even 46.5% · No-vig 43.3%
Arike Ogunbowale UnderLine 3.5 · -156
Model52.5%
Edge (no-vig)-4.2 pp
Fair-111
Projection 3.3 · Break-even 60.9% · No-vig 56.7%
Paige Bueckers OverLine 3.5 · -165
Model55.2%
Edge (no-vig)-2.7 pp
Fair-123
Projection 3.9 · Break-even 62.3% · No-vig 57.9%
Paige Bueckers UnderLine 3.5 · +121
Model44.8%
Edge (no-vig)+2.7 pp
Fair+123
Projection 3.9 · Break-even 45.3% · No-vig 42.1%
Flau'jae JohnsonInsufficient data
Ezi Magbegor OverLine 5.5 · +110
Model31.8%
Edge (no-vig)-12.5 pp
Fair+214
Projection 4.9 · Break-even 47.6% · No-vig 44.3%
Ezi Magbegor UnderLine 5.5 · -149
Model68.2%
Edge (no-vig)+12.5 pp
Fair-214
Projection 4.9 · Break-even 59.8% · No-vig 55.7%
Awak Kuier OverLine 5.5 · +106
Model44.6%
Edge (no-vig)-0.5 pp
Fair+124
Projection 4.8 · Break-even 48.5% · No-vig 45.1%
Awak Kuier UnderLine 5.5 · -145
Model55.4%
Edge (no-vig)+0.5 pp
Fair-124
Projection 4.8 · Break-even 59.2% · No-vig 54.9%
Awa Fam OverLine 5.5 · -108
Model39.4%
Edge (no-vig)-9.4 pp
Fair+154
Projection 4.6 · Break-even 51.9% · No-vig 48.8%
Awa Fam UnderLine 5.5 · -120
Model60.6%
Edge (no-vig)+9.4 pp
Fair-154
Projection 4.6 · Break-even 54.5% · No-vig 51.2%
Alanna Smith OverLine 5.5 · -139
Model63.1%
Edge (no-vig)+9.1 pp
Fair-171
Projection 6.8 · Break-even 58.2% · No-vig 54.0%
Alanna Smith UnderLine 5.5 · +102
Model36.9%
Edge (no-vig)-9.1 pp
Fair+171
Projection 6.8 · Break-even 49.5% · No-vig 46.0%
Dominique Malonga OverLine 9.5 · -123
Model61.8%
Edge (no-vig)+10.5 pp
Fair-161
Projection 10.2 · Break-even 55.2% · No-vig 51.3%
Dominique Malonga UnderLine 9.5 · -110
Model38.3%
Edge (no-vig)-10.5 pp
Fair+161
Projection 10.2 · Break-even 52.4% · No-vig 48.7%
Jessica Shepard OverLine 10.5 · -106
Model29.8%
Edge (no-vig)-18.0 pp
Fair+236
Projection 7.7 · Break-even 51.5% · No-vig 47.8%
Jessica Shepard UnderLine 10.5 · -128
Model70.2%
Edge (no-vig)+18.0 pp
Fair-236
Projection 7.7 · Break-even 56.1% · No-vig 52.2%
Indiana Fever 24-14
Chicago Sky 15-22
Scheduled · Wintrust Arena
ML-154 / +126
Spread3 (-110 / -110)
Total186 (O -110 / U -114)
pinnacle
Indiana Fever
Off Rating#1115.0 ▼ Def Rating#8107.8 ▼ Net Rating#37.2 ▼ Pace#299.3
Chicago Sky
Off Rating#11105.0 ▼ Def Rating#5107.3 ▼ Net Rating#9-2.3 ▲ Pace#199.6 ▲
MODEL PROJECTION matchup-v6-volatility-rotation
PLAYER DATA LOADED
Indiana Fever82.4
–
Chicago Sky90.7
Indiana Fever21.1%Chicago Sky79.0%
Possessions82.9 Model spreadChicago Sky -8.3 Model total173.1 Game-script reliability71.3%
MARKET COMPARISON
MarketDifference Spread+3.0-11.3 Total186-12.9 Moneyline44.3%+34.7%
MODEL DECISION
Predicted winnerChicago Sky 79.0%
SpreadChicago Sky · Bet
TotalUnder 186 · Bet
Best playMoneyline: Chicago Sky
Early thresholds · a pass is intentional.
LINE-SPECIFIC PROBABILITIES selection-prob-v2
MONEYLINEReliability 71.3/100
Chicago SkyLine ML · +126
Model80.0%
Edge (no-vig)+37.8 pp
Fair-400
Projection 7.21 · Break-even 44.3% · No-vig 42.2%
Indiana FeverLine ML · -154
Model20.0%
Edge (no-vig)-37.8 pp
Fair+400
Projection -7.21 · Break-even 60.6% · No-vig 57.8%
SPREADReliability 71.3/100
Chicago SkyLine 3 · -110
Model88.3%
Edge (no-vig)+38.3 pp
Fair-756
Projection 7.21 · Break-even 52.4% · No-vig 50.0%
Indiana FeverLine -3 · -110
Model11.7%
Edge (no-vig)-38.3 pp
Fair+756
Projection -7.21 · Break-even 52.4% · No-vig 50.0%
TOTALReliability 71.3/100
OverLine 186 · -110
Model21.5%
Edge (no-vig)-28.1 pp
Fair+365
Projection 173.69 · Break-even 52.4% · No-vig 49.6%
UnderLine 186 · -114
Model78.5%
Edge (no-vig)+28.1 pp
Fair-365
Projection 173.69 · Break-even 53.3% · No-vig 50.4%
PLAYER POINTSReliability 71.3/100
Sophie Cunningham OverLine 7.5 · -132
Model39.0%
Edge (no-vig)-14.2 pp
Fair+156
Projection 6.4 · Break-even 56.9% · No-vig 53.2%
Sophie Cunningham UnderLine 7.5 · +100
Model61.0%
Edge (no-vig)+14.2 pp
Fair-156
Projection 6.4 · Break-even 50.0% · No-vig 46.8%
Monique Billings OverLine 8.5 · -117
Model23.3%
Edge (no-vig)-27.1 pp
Fair+329
Projection 5.3 · Break-even 53.9% · No-vig 50.4%
Monique Billings UnderLine 8.5 · -113
Model76.7%
Edge (no-vig)+27.1 pp
Fair-329
Projection 5.3 · Break-even 53.0% · No-vig 49.6%
Makayla Timpson OverLine 9.5 · +110
Model51.0%
Edge (no-vig)+4.4 pp
Fair-104
Projection 10.1 · Break-even 47.6% · No-vig 46.6%
Makayla Timpson UnderLine 9.5 · -120
Model49.0%
Edge (no-vig)-4.4 pp
Fair+104
Projection 10.1 · Break-even 54.5% · No-vig 53.4%
Courtney Vandersloot OverLine 9.5 · -125
Model52.7%
Edge (no-vig)+0.8 pp
Fair-112
Projection 10.3 · Break-even 55.6% · No-vig 51.9%
Courtney Vandersloot UnderLine 9.5 · -106
Model47.3%
Edge (no-vig)-0.8 pp
Fair+112
Projection 10.3 · Break-even 51.5% · No-vig 48.1%
Azura Stevens OverLine 10.5 · -113
Model18.4%
Edge (no-vig)-31.2 pp
Fair+445
Projection 6.7 · Break-even 53.0% · No-vig 49.6%
Azura Stevens UnderLine 10.5 · -117
Model81.6%
Edge (no-vig)+31.2 pp
Fair-445
Projection 6.7 · Break-even 53.9% · No-vig 50.4%
Natasha Cloud OverLine 11.5 · -116
Model74.0%
Edge (no-vig)+23.7 pp
Fair-284
Projection 17 · Break-even 53.7% · No-vig 50.2%
Natasha Cloud UnderLine 11.5 · -114
Model26.1%
Edge (no-vig)-23.7 pp
Fair+284
Projection 17 · Break-even 53.3% · No-vig 49.8%
Kamilla Cardoso OverLine 15.5 · -121
Model61.4%
Edge (no-vig)+10.3 pp
Fair-159
Projection 16.5 · Break-even 54.8% · No-vig 51.1%
Kamilla Cardoso UnderLine 15.5 · -110
Model38.6%
Edge (no-vig)-10.3 pp
Fair+159
Projection 16.5 · Break-even 52.4% · No-vig 48.9%
Sydney TaylorInsufficient data
Caitlin Clark OverLine 24.5 · -124
Model29.3%
Edge (no-vig)-22.4 pp
Fair+242
Projection 20.7 · Break-even 55.4% · No-vig 51.7%
Caitlin Clark UnderLine 24.5 · -107
Model70.7%
Edge (no-vig)+22.4 pp
Fair-242
Projection 20.7 · Break-even 51.7% · No-vig 48.3%
Kelsey Mitchell OverLine 25.5 · -124
Model75.8%
Edge (no-vig)+24.1 pp
Fair-314
Projection 29.9 · Break-even 55.4% · No-vig 51.7%
Kelsey Mitchell UnderLine 25.5 · -107
Model24.2%
Edge (no-vig)-24.1 pp
Fair+314
Projection 29.9 · Break-even 51.7% · No-vig 48.3%
PLAYER REBOUNDSReliability 71.3/100
Natasha Cloud OverLine 3.5 · -148
Model69.8%
Edge (no-vig)+14.3 pp
Fair-231
Projection 5.3 · Break-even 59.7% · No-vig 55.5%
Natasha Cloud UnderLine 3.5 · +109
Model30.2%
Edge (no-vig)-14.3 pp
Fair+231
Projection 5.3 · Break-even 47.9% · No-vig 44.5%
Caitlin Clark OverLine 4.5 · -108
Model17.5%
Edge (no-vig)-30.7 pp
Fair+470
Projection 3.4 · Break-even 51.9% · No-vig 48.2%
Caitlin Clark UnderLine 4.5 · -126
Model82.5%
Edge (no-vig)+30.7 pp
Fair-470
Projection 3.4 · Break-even 55.8% · No-vig 51.8%
Monique Billings OverLine 5.5 · -142
Model14.7%
Edge (no-vig)-39.9 pp
Fair+581
Projection 3.3 · Break-even 58.7% · No-vig 54.6%
Monique Billings UnderLine 5.5 · +105
Model85.3%
Edge (no-vig)+39.9 pp
Fair-581
Projection 3.3 · Break-even 48.8% · No-vig 45.4%
Azura Stevens OverLine 6.5 · -148
Model50.0%
Edge (no-vig)-5.4 pp
Fair-100
Projection 6.5 · Break-even 59.7% · No-vig 55.4%
Azura Stevens UnderLine 6.5 · +108
Model50.0%
Edge (no-vig)+5.4 pp
Fair-100
Projection 6.5 · Break-even 48.1% · No-vig 44.6%
Makayla Timpson OverLine 7.5 · -142
Model62.6%
Edge (no-vig)+8.0 pp
Fair-167
Projection 8.4 · Break-even 58.7% · No-vig 54.6%
Makayla Timpson UnderLine 7.5 · +105
Model37.4%
Edge (no-vig)-8.0 pp
Fair+167
Projection 8.4 · Break-even 48.8% · No-vig 45.4%
Kamilla Cardoso OverLine 9.5 · -119
Model72.2%
Edge (no-vig)+21.7 pp
Fair-259
Projection 11 · Break-even 54.3% · No-vig 50.5%
Kamilla Cardoso UnderLine 9.5 · -114
Model27.8%
Edge (no-vig)-21.7 pp
Fair+259
Projection 11 · Break-even 53.3% · No-vig 49.5%
Washington Mystics 21-15
Portland Fire 15-21
Scheduled · Moda Center
ML-189 / +154
Spread4 (-114 / -107)
Total165 (O -114 / U -110)
pinnacle
Washington Mystics
Off Rating#14101.5 Def Rating#2102.8 ▼ Net Rating#8-1.3 ▲ Pace#1494.2
Portland Fire
Off Rating#9106.8 ▲ Def Rating#13112.0 ▼ Net Rating#11-5.3 ▲ Pace#1096.2
MODEL PROJECTION matchup-v6-volatility-rotation
PLAYER DATA LOADED
Washington Mystics77
–
Portland Fire80.6
Washington Mystics34.3%Portland Fire65.7%
Possessions79.3 Model spreadPortland Fire -3.6 Model total157.6 Game-script reliability71.1%
MARKET COMPARISON
MarketDifference Spread+4.0-7.6 Total165-7.4 Moneyline39.4%+26.3%
MODEL DECISION
Predicted winnerPortland Fire 65.7%
SpreadPortland Fire · Bet
TotalUnder 165 · Bet
Best playMoneyline: Portland Fire
Early thresholds · a pass is intentional.
LINE-SPECIFIC PROBABILITIES selection-prob-v2
MONEYLINEReliability 71.1/100
Portland FireLine ML · +154
Model62.2%
Edge (no-vig)+24.6 pp
Fair-164
Projection 2.51 · Break-even 39.4% · No-vig 37.6%
Washington MysticsLine ML · -189
Model37.8%
Edge (no-vig)-24.6 pp
Fair+164
Projection -2.51 · Break-even 65.4% · No-vig 62.4%
SPREADReliability 71.1/100
Portland FireLine 4 · -107
Model78.9%
Edge (no-vig)+29.6 pp
Fair-374
Projection 2.51 · Break-even 51.7% · No-vig 49.3%
Washington MysticsLine -4 · -114
Model21.1%
Edge (no-vig)-29.6 pp
Fair+374
Projection -2.51 · Break-even 53.3% · No-vig 50.7%
TOTALReliability 71.1/100
OverLine 165 · -114
Model32.2%
Edge (no-vig)-18.2 pp
Fair+210
Projection 158.19 · Break-even 53.3% · No-vig 50.4%
UnderLine 165 · -110
Model67.8%
Edge (no-vig)+18.2 pp
Fair-210
Projection 158.19 · Break-even 52.4% · No-vig 49.6%
PLAYER POINTSReliability 71.1/100
Emily Engstler OverLine 8.5 · -108
Model40.9%
Edge (no-vig)-7.5 pp
Fair+144
Projection 8.2 · Break-even 51.9% · No-vig 48.5%
Emily Engstler UnderLine 8.5 · -123
Model59.1%
Edge (no-vig)+7.5 pp
Fair-144
Projection 8.2 · Break-even 55.2% · No-vig 51.5%
Michaela Onyenwere OverLine 9.5 · -110
Model42.0%
Edge (no-vig)-6.8 pp
Fair+138
Projection 7.5 · Break-even 52.4% · No-vig 48.9%
Michaela Onyenwere UnderLine 9.5 · -121
Model58.0%
Edge (no-vig)+6.8 pp
Fair-138
Projection 7.5 · Break-even 54.8% · No-vig 51.1%
Megan DiLeo OverLine 13.5 · -122
Model34.8%
Edge (no-vig)-16.6 pp
Fair+188
Projection 12.4 · Break-even 54.9% · No-vig 51.3%
Megan DiLeo UnderLine 13.5 · -109
Model65.3%
Edge (no-vig)+16.6 pp
Fair-188
Projection 12.4 · Break-even 52.1% · No-vig 48.7%
Bridget Carleton OverLine 14.5 · -123
Model48.6%
Edge (no-vig)-2.9 pp
Fair+106
Projection 14.7 · Break-even 55.2% · No-vig 51.5%
Bridget Carleton UnderLine 14.5 · -108
Model51.4%
Edge (no-vig)+2.9 pp
Fair-106
Projection 14.7 · Break-even 51.9% · No-vig 48.5%
Carla Leite OverLine 15.5 · -127
Model44.8%
Edge (no-vig)-7.4 pp
Fair+123
Projection 13.5 · Break-even 56.0% · No-vig 52.2%
Carla Leite UnderLine 15.5 · -105
Model55.2%
Edge (no-vig)+7.4 pp
Fair-123
Projection 13.5 · Break-even 51.2% · No-vig 47.8%
Kiki Iriafen OverLine 16.5 · -109
Model39.2%
Edge (no-vig)-9.6 pp
Fair+155
Projection 15 · Break-even 52.1% · No-vig 48.8%
Kiki Iriafen UnderLine 16.5 · -121
Model60.8%
Edge (no-vig)+9.6 pp
Fair-155
Projection 15 · Break-even 54.8% · No-vig 51.2%
Shakira Austin OverLine 16.5 · -128
Model20.2%
Edge (no-vig)-32.2 pp
Fair+396
Projection 10.2 · Break-even 56.1% · No-vig 52.4%
Shakira Austin UnderLine 16.5 · -104
Model79.8%
Edge (no-vig)+32.2 pp
Fair-396
Projection 10.2 · Break-even 51.0% · No-vig 47.6%
Sonia Citron OverLine 17.5 · -104
Model34.9%
Edge (no-vig)-12.8 pp
Fair+187
Projection 15.7 · Break-even 51.0% · No-vig 47.7%
Sonia Citron UnderLine 17.5 · -127
Model65.1%
Edge (no-vig)+12.8 pp
Fair-187
Projection 15.7 · Break-even 56.0% · No-vig 52.3%
PLAYER REBOUNDSReliability 71.1/100
Carla Leite OverLine 2.5 · +102
Model30.1%
Edge (no-vig)-15.9 pp
Fair+232
Projection 1.4 · Break-even 49.5% · No-vig 46.0%
Carla Leite UnderLine 2.5 · -139
Model69.9%
Edge (no-vig)+15.9 pp
Fair-232
Projection 1.4 · Break-even 58.2% · No-vig 54.0%
Michaela Onyenwere OverLine 2.5 · -173
Model41.4%
Edge (no-vig)-17.5 pp
Fair+142
Projection 2.2 · Break-even 63.4% · No-vig 58.9%
Michaela Onyenwere UnderLine 2.5 · +126
Model58.6%
Edge (no-vig)+17.5 pp
Fair-142
Projection 2.2 · Break-even 44.3% · No-vig 41.1%
Sonia Citron OverLine 4.5 · +121
Model41.3%
Edge (no-vig)-0.7 pp
Fair+142
Projection 4.1 · Break-even 45.3% · No-vig 42.0%
Sonia Citron UnderLine 4.5 · -166
Model58.7%
Edge (no-vig)+0.7 pp
Fair-142
Projection 4.1 · Break-even 62.4% · No-vig 58.0%
Megan DiLeo OverLine 4.5 · -119
Model71.2%
Edge (no-vig)+20.7 pp
Fair-247
Projection 5.9 · Break-even 54.3% · No-vig 50.5%
Megan DiLeo UnderLine 4.5 · -114
Model28.8%
Edge (no-vig)-20.7 pp
Fair+247
Projection 5.9 · Break-even 53.3% · No-vig 49.5%
Bridget Carleton OverLine 4.5 · -120
Model79.0%
Edge (no-vig)+28.4 pp
Fair-377
Projection 7 · Break-even 54.5% · No-vig 50.7%
Bridget Carleton UnderLine 4.5 · -113
Model20.9%
Edge (no-vig)-28.4 pp
Fair+377
Projection 7 · Break-even 53.0% · No-vig 49.3%
Emily Engstler OverLine 5.5 · +101
Model46.2%
Edge (no-vig)+0.0 pp
Fair+117
Projection 5.4 · Break-even 49.8% · No-vig 46.2%
Emily Engstler UnderLine 5.5 · -138
Model53.8%
Edge (no-vig)+0.0 pp
Fair-117
Projection 5.4 · Break-even 58.0% · No-vig 53.8%
Shakira Austin OverLine 9.5 · -119
Model4.6%
Edge (no-vig)-45.9 pp
Fair+2071
Projection 5.2 · Break-even 54.3% · No-vig 50.5%
Shakira Austin UnderLine 9.5 · -114
Model95.4%
Edge (no-vig)+45.9 pp
Fair-2071
Projection 5.2 · Break-even 53.3% · No-vig 49.5%
Kiki Iriafen OverLine 9.5 · -137
Model55.5%
Edge (no-vig)+1.8 pp
Fair-125
Projection 10.2 · Break-even 57.8% · No-vig 53.7%
Kiki Iriafen UnderLine 9.5 · +101
Model44.5%
Edge (no-vig)-1.8 pp
Fair+125
Projection 10.2 · Break-even 49.8% · No-vig 46.3%
Las Vegas Aces 25-13
Toronto Tempo 11-25
Scheduled · Rogers Arena
ML-947 / +635
Spread14.5 (-106 / -114)
Total180 (O -110 / U -114)
pinnacle
Las Vegas Aces
Off Rating#3111.7 ▼ Def Rating#9107.9 ▲ Net Rating#63.7 ▼ Pace#996.4 ▲
Toronto Tempo
Off Rating#8107.6 ▲ Def Rating#15115.6 ▲ Net Rating#14-8.0 Pace#697.6 ▲
MODEL PROJECTION matchup-v6-volatility-rotation
PLAYER DATA LOADED
Las Vegas Aces95
–
Toronto Tempo80.6
Las Vegas Aces91.0%Toronto Tempo9.0%
Possessions80.8 Model spreadToronto Tempo +14.4 Model total175.6 Game-script reliability69.1%
MARKET COMPARISON
MarketDifference Spread+14.5-0.1 Total180-4.4 Moneyline13.6%-4.6%
MODEL DECISION
Predicted winnerLas Vegas Aces 91.0%
SpreadPass
TotalUnder 180 · Bet
Best playTotal: Under 180
Early thresholds · a pass is intentional.
LINE-SPECIFIC PROBABILITIES selection-prob-v2
MONEYLINEReliability 69.1/100
Toronto TempoLine ML · +635
Model4.1%
Edge (no-vig)-9.0 pp
Fair+2329
Projection -15.49 · Break-even 13.6% · No-vig 13.1%
Las Vegas AcesLine ML · -947
Model95.9%
Edge (no-vig)+9.0 pp
Fair-2329
Projection 15.49 · Break-even 90.5% · No-vig 86.9%
SPREADReliability 69.1/100
Toronto TempoLine 14.5 · -114
Model45.6%
Edge (no-vig)-5.3 pp
Fair+119
Projection -15.49 · Break-even 53.3% · No-vig 50.9%
Las Vegas AcesLine -14.5 · -106
Model54.4%
Edge (no-vig)+5.3 pp
Fair-119
Projection 15.49 · Break-even 51.5% · No-vig 49.1%
TOTALReliability 69.1/100
OverLine 180 · -110
Model40.7%
Edge (no-vig)-8.9 pp
Fair+146
Projection 176.19 · Break-even 52.4% · No-vig 49.6%
UnderLine 180 · -114
Model59.3%
Edge (no-vig)+8.9 pp
Fair-146
Projection 176.19 · Break-even 53.3% · No-vig 50.4%
PLAYER POINTSReliability 69.1/100
Jewell Loyd OverLine 10.5 · -107
Model21.2%
Edge (no-vig)-27.1 pp
Fair+371
Projection 7.2 · Break-even 51.7% · No-vig 48.3%
Jewell Loyd UnderLine 10.5 · -124
Model78.8%
Edge (no-vig)+27.1 pp
Fair-371
Projection 7.2 · Break-even 55.4% · No-vig 51.7%
Laura Juskaite OverLine 12.5 · -108
Model63.9%
Edge (no-vig)+15.5 pp
Fair-177
Projection 14.1 · Break-even 51.9% · No-vig 48.5%
Laura Juskaite UnderLine 12.5 · -123
Model36.0%
Edge (no-vig)-15.5 pp
Fair+177
Projection 14.1 · Break-even 55.2% · No-vig 51.5%
Chelsea Gray OverLine 12.5 · -110
Model28.6%
Edge (no-vig)-20.4 pp
Fair+250
Projection 10.2 · Break-even 52.4% · No-vig 49.0%
Chelsea Gray UnderLine 12.5 · -120
Model71.4%
Edge (no-vig)+20.4 pp
Fair-250
Projection 10.2 · Break-even 54.5% · No-vig 51.0%
NaLyssa Smith OverLine 13.5 · -120
Model42.7%
Edge (no-vig)-8.3 pp
Fair+134
Projection 12.1 · Break-even 54.5% · No-vig 51.0%
NaLyssa Smith UnderLine 13.5 · -110
Model57.3%
Edge (no-vig)+8.3 pp
Fair-134
Projection 12.1 · Break-even 52.4% · No-vig 49.0%
Kiki Rice OverLine 15.5 · -106
Model71.8%
Edge (no-vig)+23.7 pp
Fair-254
Projection 19.5 · Break-even 51.5% · No-vig 48.1%
Kiki Rice UnderLine 15.5 · -125
Model28.2%
Edge (no-vig)-23.7 pp
Fair+254
Projection 19.5 · Break-even 55.6% · No-vig 51.9%
Isabelle Harrison OverLine 16.5 · -113
Model32.8%
Edge (no-vig)-16.8 pp
Fair+205
Projection 13.5 · Break-even 53.0% · No-vig 49.6%
Isabelle Harrison UnderLine 16.5 · -117
Model67.2%
Edge (no-vig)+16.8 pp
Fair-205
Projection 13.5 · Break-even 53.9% · No-vig 50.4%
Jackie Young OverLine 22.5 · -109
Model63.3%
Edge (no-vig)+14.7 pp
Fair-173
Projection 23.7 · Break-even 52.1% · No-vig 48.7%
Jackie Young UnderLine 22.5 · -122
Model36.7%
Edge (no-vig)-14.7 pp
Fair+173
Projection 23.7 · Break-even 54.9% · No-vig 51.3%
A'ja Wilson OverLine 24.5 · -121
Model10.4%
Edge (no-vig)-40.7 pp
Fair+865
Projection 13.2 · Break-even 54.8% · No-vig 51.1%
A'ja Wilson UnderLine 24.5 · -110
Model89.6%
Edge (no-vig)+40.7 pp
Fair-865
Projection 13.2 · Break-even 52.4% · No-vig 48.9%
PLAYER REBOUNDSReliability 69.1/100
Chelsea Gray OverLine 2.5 · -158
Model41.4%
Edge (no-vig)-15.6 pp
Fair+142
Projection 2.3 · Break-even 61.2% · No-vig 57.0%
Chelsea Gray UnderLine 2.5 · +116
Model58.6%
Edge (no-vig)+15.6 pp
Fair-142
Projection 2.3 · Break-even 46.3% · No-vig 43.0%
Kiki Rice OverLine 4.5 · +119
Model28.5%
Edge (no-vig)-14.0 pp
Fair+251
Projection 3.3 · Break-even 45.7% · No-vig 42.4%
Kiki Rice UnderLine 4.5 · -163
Model71.5%
Edge (no-vig)+14.0 pp
Fair-251
Projection 3.3 · Break-even 62.0% · No-vig 57.6%
Jackie Young OverLine 4.5 · -104
Model54.4%
Edge (no-vig)+7.1 pp
Fair-119
Projection 4.9 · Break-even 51.0% · No-vig 47.3%
Jackie Young UnderLine 4.5 · -131
Model45.6%
Edge (no-vig)-7.1 pp
Fair+119
Projection 4.9 · Break-even 56.7% · No-vig 52.7%
Laura Juskaite OverLine 4.5 · -141
Model64.0%
Edge (no-vig)+9.6 pp
Fair-178
Projection 5.5 · Break-even 58.5% · No-vig 54.4%
Laura Juskaite UnderLine 4.5 · +104
Model36.0%
Edge (no-vig)-9.6 pp
Fair+178
Projection 5.5 · Break-even 49.0% · No-vig 45.6%
Isabelle Harrison OverLine 6.5 · -122
Model57.5%
Edge (no-vig)+6.4 pp
Fair-135
Projection 7.7 · Break-even 54.9% · No-vig 51.1%
Isabelle Harrison UnderLine 6.5 · -111
Model42.5%
Edge (no-vig)-6.4 pp
Fair+135
Projection 7.7 · Break-even 52.6% · No-vig 48.9%
NaLyssa Smith OverLine 8.5 · +106
Model39.5%
Edge (no-vig)-5.6 pp
Fair+153
Projection 7.6 · Break-even 48.5% · No-vig 45.1%
NaLyssa Smith UnderLine 8.5 · -145
Model60.5%
Edge (no-vig)+5.6 pp
Fair-153
Projection 7.6 · Break-even 59.2% · No-vig 54.9%
A'ja Wilson OverLine 9.5 · -113
Model10.1%
Edge (no-vig)-39.1 pp
Fair+892
Projection 4.6 · Break-even 53.0% · No-vig 49.2%
A'ja Wilson UnderLine 9.5 · -121
Model89.9%
Edge (no-vig)+39.1 pp
Fair-892
Projection 4.6 · Break-even 54.8% · No-vig 50.8%

Player PTS & REB Projections

Pregame outputs from projected rotations and stored ESPN box-score history.

player-pr-v1

Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings

Seattle Storm13 roster players
PlayerMinPTSREB
Jade MelbourneACTIVE29.612.32.3
Dominique MalongaACTIVE28.220.010.2
Flau'jae JohnsonACTIVE28.011.13.8
Ezi MagbegorACTIVE24.08.84.9
Awa FamACTIVE20.48.74.6
Jordan HorstonACTIVE16.67.14.5
Zia CookeACTIVE14.37.50.9
Taylor ThierryACTIVE11.73.32.9
Katie Lou SamuelsonACTIVE11.42.71.0
Stefanie DolsonACTIVE9.01.61.3
Taina MairACTIVE4.92.40.0
Mackenzie HolmesACTIVE1.90.00.0
Natisha HiedemanOUT0.00.00.0
Add optional player line
Dallas Wings15 roster players
PlayerMinPTSREB
Paige BueckersACTIVE33.520.23.9
Arike OgunbowaleACTIVE32.318.03.3
Alanna SmithACTIVE26.710.46.8
Jessica ShepardACTIVE25.712.47.7
Awak KuierACTIVE20.17.44.8
Odyssey SimsACTIVE18.76.11.6
Alysha ClarkACTIVE16.23.52.2
Maddy SiegristACTIVE11.14.32.1
Li YueruACTIVE9.42.71.7
Sug SuttonACTIVE5.01.20.4
Haley JonesACTIVE1.30.90.4
Christyn WilliamsACTIVE0.00.00.0
Aziaha JamesOUT0.00.00.0
Azzi FuddOUT0.00.00.0
Costanza VeronaOUT0.00.00.0
Add optional player line

Indiana Fever at Chicago Sky

Indiana Fever14 roster players
PlayerMinPTSREB
Kelsey MitchellACTIVE38.329.92.0
Caitlin ClarkPROBABLE35.820.73.4
Makayla TimpsonACTIVE32.810.18.4
Sophie CunninghamACTIVE28.16.42.6
Lexie HullACTIVE17.23.33.3
Monique BillingsACTIVE17.05.33.3
Tyasha HarrisACTIVE15.84.31.3
Myisha Hines-AllenQUESTIONABLE6.71.22.0
Raven JohnsonACTIVE4.40.60.2
Mercedes RussellACTIVE2.70.70.0
Grace VanSlootenACTIVE1.20.00.0
Bree HallACTIVE0.00.00.0
Michelle OnyiahACTIVE0.00.00.0
Aliyah BostonOUT0.00.00.0
Add optional player line
Chicago Sky14 roster players
PlayerMinPTSREB
Natasha CloudACTIVE33.117.05.3
Kamilla CardosoACTIVE28.916.511.0
Courtney VanderslootACTIVE25.310.33.5
Azura StevensACTIVE23.86.76.5
Sydney TaylorACTIVE20.516.12.1
Jacy SheldonACTIVE16.04.40.8
Rachel BanhamACTIVE11.96.01.8
Aicha CoulibalyACTIVE11.74.21.5
Elizabeth WilliamsACTIVE10.42.31.5
DiJonai CarringtonDAY_TO_DAY9.65.52.0
Gabriela JaquezACTIVE8.81.71.1
Morgan MalyACTIVE0.00.00.0
Rickea JacksonOUT0.00.00.0
Skylar DigginsOUT0.00.00.0
Add optional player line

Washington Mystics at Portland Fire

Washington Mystics14 roster players
PlayerMinPTSREB
Sonia CitronACTIVE33.115.74.1
Kiki IriafenACTIVE30.615.010.2
Michaela OnyenwereACTIVE23.97.52.2
Georgia AmooreACTIVE22.84.31.7
Cotie McMahonACTIVE19.97.13.5
Lauren BettsACTIVE18.75.25.1
Shakira AustinQUESTIONABLE15.910.25.2
Betnijah Laney-HamiltonACTIVE15.03.61.9
Alicia FlorezACTIVE6.72.51.1
Cassandre ProsperACTIVE4.61.30.5
Angela DugalicACTIVE4.22.11.2
Lucy OlsenACTIVE2.62.40.0
Rori HarmonACTIVE1.00.00.0
Add optional player line
Portland Fire15 roster players
PlayerMinPTSREB
Bridget CarletonACTIVE31.214.77.0
Emily EngstlerACTIVE25.08.25.4
Megan DiLeoACTIVE24.912.45.9
Carla LeiteACTIVE24.313.51.4
Nyadiew PuochACTIVE19.96.32.7
Jordan HarrisonACTIVE14.05.82.3
Karlie SamuelsonACTIVE13.63.71.8
Serah WilliamsACTIVE12.23.01.9
Frieda BuhnerACTIVE12.14.22.0
Holly WinterburnACTIVE11.54.51.9
Teja OblakACTIVE11.34.21.8
Amy OkonkwoACTIVE0.00.00.0
Luisa GeiselsoderOUT0.00.00.0
Sania FeaginOUT0.00.00.0
Add optional player line

Las Vegas Aces at Toronto Tempo

Las Vegas Aces13 roster players
PlayerMinPTSREB
Jackie YoungACTIVE32.123.74.9
Chelsea GrayACTIVE31.910.22.3
NaLyssa SmithACTIVE25.812.17.6
Jewell LoydACTIVE24.57.22.3
A'ja WilsonQUESTIONABLE16.613.24.6
Mai YamamotoACTIVE11.85.30.5
Brianna TurnerACTIVE10.90.91.5
Stephanie TalbotACTIVE10.62.31.5
Justine PissottACTIVE8.34.41.1
Cheyenne Parker-TyusACTIVE7.48.43.5
Kierstan BellACTIVE7.11.61.1
Ta'Niya LatsonACTIVE6.84.50.8
Dana EvansQUESTIONABLE6.21.30.8
Add optional player line
Toronto Tempo14 roster players
PlayerMinPTSREB
Julie AllemandACTIVE36.28.64.0
Kiki RiceACTIVE35.419.53.3
Laura JuskaiteACTIVE31.414.15.5
Isabelle HarrisonACTIVE28.213.57.7
Kia NurseACTIVE19.610.00.8
Temi FagbenleACTIVE18.46.33.0
Ornella BankoleACTIVE16.15.12.0
Teonni KeyACTIVE8.23.51.0
Zaay GreenACTIVE6.50.01.3
Aneesah MorrowOUT0.00.00.0
Brittney SykesOUT0.00.00.0
Maria CondeOUT0.00.00.0
Marina MabreyOUT0.00.00.0
Nyara SaballyOUT0.00.00.0
Add optional player line