Triple Threat — 2026-10-19

Atlanta Dream at Golden State Valkyries

Atlanta Dream 30-14

Golden State Valkyries 32-12

Scheduled · Chase Center

ML+111 / -130

Spread-2 (-111 / -105)

Total152.5 (O -109 / U -111)

pinnacle

Atlanta Dream

Off Rating#4111.9 ▼ Def Rating#3103.5 ▼ Net Rating#38.4 ▲ Pace#597.7 ▼

Golden State Valkyries

Off Rating#7108.2 ▼ Def Rating#199.1 Net Rating#19.1 ▼ Pace#1590.8 ▲

MODEL PROJECTION matchup-v7-final-role-distribution

PLAYER DATA LOADED

Atlanta Dream69.3

–

Golden State Valkyries81

Scoring range (P20 / median / P80) 59.1 / 69.3 / 79.5 71.7 / 81 / 90.3 Total range138.6 / 150.3 / 162

Atlanta Dream18.6%Golden State Valkyries81.4%

Possessions78.5 Model spreadGolden State Valkyries -11.7 Model total150.3 Game-script reliability75.6%

MARKET COMPARISON

MarketDifference Spread-2.0-9.7 Total152.5-2.2 Moneyline56.5%+24.8%

MODEL DECISION

Predicted winnerGolden State Valkyries 81.4%

SpreadGolden State Valkyries -2 · Bet

TotalUnder 152.5 · Lean

Best playMoneyline: Golden State Valkyries

Early thresholds · a pass is intentional.

LINE-SPECIFIC PROBABILITIES selection-prob-v2

MONEYLINEReliability 75.6/100

Golden State ValkyriesLine ML · -130

Model78.8%

Edge (no-vig)+24.4 pp

Fair-371

Projection 11.25 · Break-even 56.5% · No-vig 54.4%

Atlanta DreamLine ML · +111

Model21.2%

Edge (no-vig)-24.4 pp

Fair+371

Projection -11.25 · Break-even 47.4% · No-vig 45.6%

SPREADReliability 75.6/100

Golden State ValkyriesLine -2 · -105

Model74.4%

Edge (no-vig)+25.1 pp

Fair-291

Projection 11.25 · Break-even 51.2% · No-vig 49.3%

Atlanta DreamLine 2 · -111

Model25.6%

Edge (no-vig)-25.1 pp

Fair+291

Projection -11.25 · Break-even 52.6% · No-vig 50.7%

TOTALReliability 75.6/100

OverLine 152.5 · -109

Model51.3%

Edge (no-vig)+1.5 pp

Fair-105

Projection 153.09 · Break-even 52.1% · No-vig 49.8%

UnderLine 152.5 · -111

Model48.7%

Edge (no-vig)-1.5 pp

Fair+105

Projection 153.09 · Break-even 52.6% · No-vig 50.2%

Player PTS & REB Projections

Pregame outputs from projected rotations and stored ESPN box-score history.

player-pr-v1

Atlanta Dream at Golden State Valkyries

Atlanta Dream14 roster players

PlayerMinPTSREB

Rhyne HowardACTIVE37.414.64.7

Jordin CanadaACTIVE35.513.43.6

Angel ReeseACTIVE33.715.410.4

Naz HillmonACTIVE33.66.34.7

DeWanna BonnerACTIVE24.48.95.8

Isobel BorlaseACTIVE14.84.82.0

Te-Hina PaopaoACTIVE6.41.50.3

Sika KoneACTIVE4.11.20.8

Madina OkotACTIVE3.81.11.8

Shatori Walker-KimbroughACTIVE3.80.90.5

Indya NivarACTIVE2.51.20.5

Allisha GrayOUT0.00.00.0

Brionna JonesOUT0.00.00.0

Matilde VillaOUT0.00.00.0

Add optional player line

Golden State Valkyries15 roster players

PlayerMinPTSREB

Gabby WilliamsACTIVE30.721.94.2

Veronica BurtonACTIVE29.810.64.2

Kiah StokesACTIVE29.65.09.6

Kayla ThorntonACTIVE23.88.74.8

Kaila CharlesACTIVE22.17.05.2

Cecilia ZandalasiniACTIVE12.35.01.4

Tiffany HayesACTIVE12.17.61.8

Kaitlyn ChenACTIVE7.63.70.8

Ashten PrechtelACTIVE6.60.61.3

Laeticia AmihereACTIVE6.62.61.6

Aminata GueyeACTIVE5.71.71.2

Janelle SalaunACTIVE5.32.30.7

Juste JocyteACTIVE5.34.30.8

Miela SowahACTIVE2.50.00.0

Iliana RupertOUT0.00.00.0

Add optional player line

Matchup Stats

Season supporting evidence from stored ESPN completed box scores.

Atlanta Dream at Golden State Valkyries

Atlanta DreamGolden State Valkyries

92.1

Points

84.8

80.4

Points allowed

76.0

43.5%

Field goal %

42.3%

—

Opponent FG %

—

35.7

Rebounds

36.6

21.8

Assists

19.2

9.6

Turnovers

9.9

8.4

Steals

8.3

4.2

Blocks

4.4

Atlanta Dream leaders

PTSRhyne Howard17.9

REBAngel Reese10.7

ASTJordin Canada7.1

STLRhyne Howard1.9

BLKAngel Reese1.7

3PMRhyne Howard2.8

Golden State Valkyries leaders

PTSGabby Williams18.6

REBKiah Stokes8.9

ASTVeronica Burton4.8

STLGabby Williams1.5

BLKKiah Stokes2.2

3PMGabby Williams2.0

2026 League-wide Stored Stat Leaders

These rankings cover the stored league sample and do not change when viewing a different matchup.

Points

1. A'ja Wilson26.5

2. Kelsey Mitchell24.1

3. Breanna Stewart22.3

4. Caitlin Clark21.5

5. Kahleah Copper21.0

Rebounds

1. Angel Reese10.7

2. Jonquel Jones10.5

3. Kiki Iriafen10.4

4. Shakira Austin10.2

5. A'ja Wilson9.2

Assists

1. Caitlin Clark9.1

2. Alyssa Thomas8.4

3. Jordin Canada7.1

4. Jackie Young7.0

5. Carla Leite6.3

Steals

1. Amy Okonkwo4.0

2. Azzi Fudd2.5

3. Laura Juskaite2.1

4. Flau'jae Johnson1.9

5. Rhyne Howard1.9

Blocks

1. Cameron Brink2.6

2. Kiah Stokes2.2

3. Awak Kuier2.1

4. Brittney Griner2.0

5. A'ja Wilson1.8

3-pointers made

1. Bridget Carleton3.8

2. Kayla McBride3.2

3. Marina Mabrey3.2

4. Kelsey Mitchell3.1

5. Caitlin Clark2.8